I’ve seen a lot of people ask this question in recent months. The trigger seems to be the fact that most Vtubers have noticed a drop in viewership this year. This has sparked a lot of debate about if the bubble has finally burst. Polygon even wrote an article about this that seemed to not look at the real data.
Twitch is falling.
The data is here. 2022 Twitch had over a 10% drop in viewership. 2023 looks like it might be worse. Almost every month this year has been lower than it was a year prior. Now the Quarter 3 numbers have been released. Twitch viewership continues to drop but YouTube Live has been growing massively. Maybe it’s not so much that the Vtuber bubble has burst, but only that the Twitch bubble has burst? Most English Vtubers (and streamers in general) are on Twitch. When Twitch is doing worse, of course the Vtubers would do worse as well. Perhaps it’s time to move to YouTube?
The amount of hours watched on YouTube live has seen a massive spike of over 9%, while Twitch’s viewership dropped slightly compared to Q2 2023.
Twitch viewership has been dropping every month.
Meanwhile, YouTube’s streaming viewership has skyrocketed by over a billion hours in August compared to just a month prior. But even July was a bit higher for YouTube than it was for Twitch.
So while Twitch has been falling, YouTube has been growing massively. Is this the the real answer? Are Vtubers just the victim in Twitch’s fall? Or maybe…
Streaming is falling.
In recent years, we saw a massive spike in the number of streamers as well as viewers. But there was an even larger spike in “Short-form” content. This might be where the real answer is. Most viewership nowadays seems to be going to Short-form content such as YouTube Shorts and Tiktok. The average viewer of content in modern times seems to have a much shorter attention span. Short-form content is thriving while streaming, at least on Twitch, is losing viewership every month. Maybe Vtubers need to step back and consider that streaming isn’t the way to go anymore. Vtubers started off making edited/pre-recorded content on YouTube. Kizuna Ai lead the way. Then Nijisanji and Hololive pushed the market forward with live streaming. Perhaps that era is ending and Vtubers need to adjust again; this time to Short-form content.
Whichever the correct answer is, I don’t believe the “Vtuber Bubble” itself has burst. The real issue is definitely with streaming itself. Whether it’s the platform or the entire concept of streaming, I can’t say. But I think there’s still a large audience for Vtubers.
Don’t give up yet.